Solana Poised for $250 Surge as Altcoin Season Approaches, Predicts Arthur Hayes

13. Aug 2024 Posted by Laurent C. on News

According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom Fund, Solana (SOL) could experience a significant price surge, potentially surpassing $250, driven by the upcoming altcoin season. However, the timing of this rally remains uncertain, as it may be postponed until 2025, largely influenced by the performance of the two leading cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).

Hayes emphasizes that for the altcoin market to enter a bullish phase, Bitcoin and Ether must first reclaim critical psychological thresholds. In his research note dated August 12, Hayes argues that:

"Altseason will only commence once Bitcoin and Ether decisively break through $70,000 and $4,000, respectively... A year-end rally fueled by dollar liquidity will lay the groundwork for a vibrant altcoin market."

The cryptocurrency market recently faced a sharp downturn, shedding $510 billion in value, causing Bitcoin and Ether to revert to levels last seen in February. Bitcoin, in particular, fell below a crucial post-halving growth trajectory, dropping under $63,000. However, Hayes remains optimistic that if Bitcoin can recover this trendline by the end of 2024, it could be on course to hit the $100,000 milestone, consistent with previous halving cycles.

This optimistic outlook is partly based on the anticipated issuance of U.S. Treasury bills (T-bills), which could inject fresh liquidity into the crypto markets. Hayes notes:

"Taking Treasury Secretary Yellen's statements at face value, we can expect $301 billion in net T-bill issuance by year-end. If this relationship holds, Bitcoin is likely to recover from the recent dip caused by the strengthening yen, with the next target being $100,000."

Despite these projections, Bitcoin currently faces challenges in surpassing the $60,000 psychological barrier, with Bitcoin ETF inflows remaining stagnant. Meanwhile, Solana, the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is poised to benefit from the next altcoin season, potentially rallying to $250. However, Hayes points out that while a Solana pump could occur, its market-wide impact is expected to be less significant compared to Bitcoin and Ether, due to its smaller market capitalization.

Currently, Solana's price is down 42% from its all-time high of $259, reached in November 2021. Nonetheless, as the market gears up for the next altcoin season, Solana remains a cryptocurrency to watch closely.