Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Chances Jump 75% After Grayscale’s Victory Against US SEC

Earlier this week, the world’s largest crypto asset manager Grayscale registered a milestone victory against the US SEC gaining an approval of converting its GBTC Bitcoin product to a spot Bitcoin ETF.

As a result, Bloomberg ETF experts, James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, have revised their predictions of the spot Bitcoin ETF coming this year in the US. After the Grayscale victory, Balchunas said that there’s a 75% probability of the Bitcoin ETF coming by the end of 2023, and 95% probability of it coming by the end of 2024.

In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Balchunas wrote: "James Seyffart and I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this year (95% by end of 2024). While we factored Grayscale win into our previous 65% odds, the unanimity and decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves the SEC with very little wiggle room”.

Seyffart also affirmed that many inquiries arose yesterday. Eric and he have adjusted their stance to a 75% likelihood of a spot bitcoin ETF launch in 2023. They strongly believe that the launch by the end of 2024 is nearly assured.

The SEC's deadlines for assessing applications from BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, and Valkyrie, whether to approve, reject, or delay, are set between September 1 and September 4. Nevertheless, the analysts anticipate potential delays in these decisions.

The analysts mentioned that they wouldn't be surprised if the SEC opts for a delay, considering the recent court ruling. However, they pointed out that the timing might not be of utmost significance in this context. Balchunas stated that it's more probable that news could emerge of the SEC conceding and an imminent launch becoming a reality.

During an appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box, Michael Sonnenshein, Grayscale's CEO, offered insights into the ongoing proceedings. Speaking on the show, Sonnenshein revealed that Grayscale is carefully evaluating its options moving forward. The prominent cryptocurrency asset management company acknowledges that the SEC still has a 45-day window to potentially appeal the court's decision, either in the Washington Court or even in the Supreme Court.

Sonnenshein noted that Grayscale's legal team is engaging in constructive discussions with the SEC during the interim period leading up to the issuance of the final mandate, which will outline the next steps for operational proceedings.

Still, there’s not enough clarity on whether Grayscale will convert its GBTC into spot Bitcoin ETF or they need to file it fresh.