U.S. National Debt Could Drop by 35% in 24 Years with Bitcoin Reserve, Says VanEck
The United States could significantly reduce its national debt—by as much as 35% over the next 24 years—by creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve, according to a bold proposal tied to a bill from Senator Cynthia Lummis. Asset management firm VanEck revealed this potential scenario in a report dated Dec. 20, estimating that such a reserve could offset approximately $42 trillion in liabilities by 2049.
Bitcoin’s Role in Reducing Debt
VanEck’s calculations assume that Bitcoin’s price will grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25%, reaching an eye-watering $42.3 million per coin by 2049. Simultaneously, the U.S. national debt is projected to climb from $37 trillion in 2025 to $119.3 trillion, growing at a CAGR of 5%.
“The reserve could represent an estimated 35% of the national debt by 2049,” explained VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, alongside investment analyst Nathan Frankovitz. They based their “optimistic” forecast on Bitcoin starting at a $200,000 valuation in 2025, a significant leap from its current trading price of $95,360.
If Bitcoin were to hit $42.3 million, it would account for approximately 18% of the global financial asset market—an astonishing increase from the current 0.22% share in the $900 trillion global market.
The Trump Administration’s Potential Bitcoin Push
Donald Trump’s incoming administration has hinted at embracing Bitcoin, with speculation that Trump could issue an executive order on his first day in office, designating Bitcoin as a reserve asset. This has already fueled a rally in Bitcoin prices, pushing them into six-figure territory. However, Senator Lummis’ proposed bill, which lays the groundwork for such a reserve, has yet to make its way through Congress.
Financing the Bitcoin Reserve
Under Lummis’ bill, the U.S. could utilize its current holdings of 198,100 Bitcoin—acquired through asset seizures—and finance the remaining 801,900 Bitcoin needed via creative means. These could include reallocating a portion of the country’s $455 billion gold reserves or leveraging emergency funding mechanisms. Crucially, this strategy would avoid taxpayer burden and eschew additional money printing, VanEck noted.
Geopolitical Factors Bolstering Bitcoin’s Case
VanEck also highlighted the potential for Bitcoin’s adoption as a global settlement currency, particularly among nations in the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). These countries may increasingly turn to Bitcoin for international trade to circumvent rising USD sanctions.
“It’s very possible Bitcoin will be widely used as a settlement currency for global trade by countries looking to avoid the parabolic increase in USD sanctions,” Sigel shared in a Dec. 21 social media post.
Implications for the U.S.
Wider Bitcoin adoption at state, institutional, and corporate levels could further bolster its CAGR trajectory, making the reserve plan even more impactful. If realized, this strategy could not only alleviate the national debt burden but also position the U.S. as a leader in digital asset adoption.
The coming years will determine whether these ambitious projections materialize, but one thing is certain—Bitcoin's role in national and global finance is evolving rapidly.